Noise : a flaw in human judgment /
Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selecti...
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Main Authors: | |
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Group Author: | ; |
Published: |
Little, Brown Spark,
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Publisher Address: | New York : |
Publication Dates: | 2021. |
Literature type: | Book |
Language: | English |
Edition: | First edition. |
Subjects: | |
Summary: |
Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection. |
Carrier Form: | ix, 454 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm |
Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 399-438) and index. |
ISBN: |
9780316266659 0316266655 |
Index Number: | BF447 |
CLC: | C934 |
Call Number: | C934/K129-3 |
Contents: | Introduction: Two kinds of error -- Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions -- Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise -- Part III. Noise in predictive judgment: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal -- Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise -- Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol -- Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards? -- Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously -- Epilogue: A less noisy world -- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit -- Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer -- Appendix C: Correcting predictions. |