Screen LibraryEnvironmental foresight and models : a manifesto /
Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said, are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behaviour of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. The International Task Force in Forecasting Environmental Change (1993-1998) d...
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| Corporate Authors: | |
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| Group Author: | |
| Published: |
Elsevier,
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| Publisher Address: | Amsterdam [Netherlands] ; New York : |
| Publication Dates: | 2002. |
| Literature type: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Edition: | First edition. |
| Series: |
Developments in environmental modelling ;
22 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/bookseries/01678892/22 |
| Summary: |
Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said, are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behaviour of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. The International Task Force in Forecasting Environmental Change (1993-1998) dedicated its work to developing procedures of model building capable of addressing our palpable concerns for substantial change in the future. This volume discusses the immense challenges that such structural change presents - that the behaviour of the environment may become radically different fr |
| Carrier Form: | 1 online resource (xvi, 473 pages) : illustrations. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: |
9780080440866 008044086X 9780080531069 0080531067 |
| Index Number: | GE45 |
| CLC: | X11 |
| Contents: | We have a problem ; Beginnings of a change of perspective ; Structural change : a definition ; The manifesto ; Epilogue / M.B. Beck -- Lake Erie and evolving issues of the quality of its water / W.M. Schertzer and D.C.L. Lam -- Impacts of acidic atmospheric deposition on the chemical composition of stream water and soil water / G.M. Hornberger -- The ozone problem / R.L. Dennis -- Belief networks : generating the feared dislocations / O. Varis -- Random search and the reachability of target futures / M.B. Beck, J. Chen and O.O. Osidele -- Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in |